Friday, December 31, 2010
Sunday, December 05, 2010
Not sure which disease is actually dangerous
Given the importance that the institute was paying to this particular disease - mind you, of all the prevalent diseases - I thought this is important. So, I approached a doctor for the vaccination required. He told me that it is a two stage process - one injection now, and another 6 months later. I thought that I will start the process here and the institute will definitely ensure that I get the second dose 6 months hence, when I will be in a place that care about this particular disease so much.
To my dismay, it was costly affair. The injection was for around Rs. 2,000/- at that time. However, I went ahead and got the injection as well as the form filled from the doctor. I submitted it along with other documents to the institute.
The expectation was that there will be many like me who will have had only the first injection by doctors at their place. The second part will have to happen at the institute for all of them. So, there will be a camp one day to ensure that we fight this dangerous disease and it does not proliferate.
There was not even a single word on this for the 2 years I spent at my B-School. The institute might have just been following government orders around this, and did not seriously care about Hepatitis B as a disease. On some research, I found that this disease suddenly gained prominence in the country and did not seem to be much of a threat for Indians - neither were there cases. But this fear of the disease was suddenly all prevalent. I am sure more of my batchmates would have been affected by diseases like malaria etc.
Some diseases seem to get prominence quickly, even though they might not be too much relevant. Not sure why this happens. Is there some conspiracy behind this? I believe we need to think about these issues more. Have we started taking all these things for granted?
Shri Rajiv Bhai - An Inspiration
You know how there are a few people that make a strong dent in your life - if not in your actions, but atleast in your thoughts. While some of them are the usual suspects - parents, teachers etc. - some others are a little hard to imagine.
One such person for me has been Swargiya Shri Rajiv Dixitji. I became aware about him and his thoughts, may be around 10 years back. His ideas were something which none of the kids of my age/generation would have come across. It was not something that you can get from your teachers, parents etc - in fact many of them might want to keep you as far from them as possible.
I met him once when he was in Mumbai. I had heard his speeches through cassettes, but wanted to hear him in person. So, me and my brother went to this place in Mumbai where he was supposed to be part of a cultural function. Though he did not get much time to speak on that occasion, as always he influenced the audience, even within the short span of time.
Whoever knew Rajiv bhai said one thing for sure - His life followed exactly what his preachings were. He was one of the greatest patriots that I have known of in the last few decades.
What made Rajiv bhai's lectures appeal to everyone was the extensive background research that he used to do and at the same time, the simplicity in the way he used to explain these things to the audience. His knowledge was unmatched and he was inquisitive enough to get to the reason for why things happened, before he can form an opinion.
I do not follow most of his teachings, but hope to bring atleast some of the things in my life and thoughts.
I will encourage you to listed to the thoughts of Rajiv Bhai by downloading his speeches. If you have time to listen to just one of them, then this is something which is highly recommended.
He always preached (and followed) to use one's native language as much as possible. I try to do that on a daily basis for verbal communication, but I have been too lazy to make it an important part of my written communication. I should have ideally written atleast this post in Hindi, my mother tongue. Rajiv bhai, mujhe shama kar dena.
One such person for me has been Swargiya Shri Rajiv Dixitji. I became aware about him and his thoughts, may be around 10 years back. His ideas were something which none of the kids of my age/generation would have come across. It was not something that you can get from your teachers, parents etc - in fact many of them might want to keep you as far from them as possible.
I met him once when he was in Mumbai. I had heard his speeches through cassettes, but wanted to hear him in person. So, me and my brother went to this place in Mumbai where he was supposed to be part of a cultural function. Though he did not get much time to speak on that occasion, as always he influenced the audience, even within the short span of time.
Whoever knew Rajiv bhai said one thing for sure - His life followed exactly what his preachings were. He was one of the greatest patriots that I have known of in the last few decades.
What made Rajiv bhai's lectures appeal to everyone was the extensive background research that he used to do and at the same time, the simplicity in the way he used to explain these things to the audience. His knowledge was unmatched and he was inquisitive enough to get to the reason for why things happened, before he can form an opinion.
I do not follow most of his teachings, but hope to bring atleast some of the things in my life and thoughts.
I will encourage you to listed to the thoughts of Rajiv Bhai by downloading his speeches. If you have time to listen to just one of them, then this is something which is highly recommended.
He always preached (and followed) to use one's native language as much as possible. I try to do that on a daily basis for verbal communication, but I have been too lazy to make it an important part of my written communication. I should have ideally written atleast this post in Hindi, my mother tongue. Rajiv bhai, mujhe shama kar dena.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Of Healthcare, And Insurance
The last month has been somewhat of a challenge for our family. There were some medical emergencies that had to be tackled. It not only involved dealing with doctors, hospitals, but following that it meant dealing with the insurance agents, TPAs etc.
Here are some observations about the experience:
1. There is a general sense of arrogance that one can perceive in the medical community. Be it the person who does the admission in the hospital to the highest personnel. I somehow was reminded of 'MunnaBhai M.B.B.S' many times during these interactions.
2. Either the medical practitioners really do not have enough time to give to their patients, or they create this perception. You do not get enough time to talk satisfactorily with a doctor. They just come and swoop by as soon as they can. May be it is required to not disclose everything to the relatives of patients. But I am not sure at the point where the line has been drawn currently. And maybe, if we consider the number of patients (and their relatives) vying for their attention, it is probably not their fault.
3. It has become so difficult to diagnose diseases these days. I am certain that it is of primary importance. But though, the number of tests that get conducted before and after patients are treated, have increased substantially over recent times, diagnosis continues to remain a challenge.
4. Speaking with doctors / nurses is an art. One is dependent on them to take care of the patient, and so has to be very careful about how to deal with them
5. One word of caution while buying mediclaim / health insurance - Be proactive, and ask your agent details about the policy. Some of the things that are conveniently left to be fetched by the policy holder are:
- The agent should be strong enough to explain the policy intricacies, guide you through the entire claims process, and have a "will-do" attitude. He/She should ideally lead the claims process, for it is his/her duty - otherwise, what is their use as an agent. Else for what reason is this person earning from your premiums that get paid to the insurers
- It is extremely important to intimate the TPA or the insurance company of any medical emergency / hospitalization that will lead to a potential claim ASAP. That ways there is no chance for them to use that as an excuse to reject your claim
- When taking a policy, one needs to check what the cooling-off period is. Cooling-off period is the duration from the start of the policy, during which time, pre-existing diseases are not covered in the policy. Now, the definition of the pre-existing diseases is very wide. It is not limited to diseases that you have been diagnosed or treated for before taking the policy. It includes even those that you have but might not be aware of. The insurance companies and TPAs have a long list of such diseases. If you suffer from any of these, during the cooling-off period, there is no convincing that will work, to claim that this was not something that you already had while taking the policy
- Ensure that all originals (prescriptions, bills, test reports etc.) are with you. These will have to be submitted in original to the insurers.
- Ensure that everything in the medical process gets recorded. For e.g. due to emergency conditions, if you have to be shifted to a bigger hospital, ensure that proper reasons are written in the discharge card of the first hospital
The entire thing reminded me of Michael Moore's Sicko.
Here are some observations about the experience:
1. There is a general sense of arrogance that one can perceive in the medical community. Be it the person who does the admission in the hospital to the highest personnel. I somehow was reminded of 'MunnaBhai M.B.B.S' many times during these interactions.
2. Either the medical practitioners really do not have enough time to give to their patients, or they create this perception. You do not get enough time to talk satisfactorily with a doctor. They just come and swoop by as soon as they can. May be it is required to not disclose everything to the relatives of patients. But I am not sure at the point where the line has been drawn currently. And maybe, if we consider the number of patients (and their relatives) vying for their attention, it is probably not their fault.
3. It has become so difficult to diagnose diseases these days. I am certain that it is of primary importance. But though, the number of tests that get conducted before and after patients are treated, have increased substantially over recent times, diagnosis continues to remain a challenge.
4. Speaking with doctors / nurses is an art. One is dependent on them to take care of the patient, and so has to be very careful about how to deal with them
5. One word of caution while buying mediclaim / health insurance - Be proactive, and ask your agent details about the policy. Some of the things that are conveniently left to be fetched by the policy holder are:
- The agent should be strong enough to explain the policy intricacies, guide you through the entire claims process, and have a "will-do" attitude. He/She should ideally lead the claims process, for it is his/her duty - otherwise, what is their use as an agent. Else for what reason is this person earning from your premiums that get paid to the insurers
- It is extremely important to intimate the TPA or the insurance company of any medical emergency / hospitalization that will lead to a potential claim ASAP. That ways there is no chance for them to use that as an excuse to reject your claim
- When taking a policy, one needs to check what the cooling-off period is. Cooling-off period is the duration from the start of the policy, during which time, pre-existing diseases are not covered in the policy. Now, the definition of the pre-existing diseases is very wide. It is not limited to diseases that you have been diagnosed or treated for before taking the policy. It includes even those that you have but might not be aware of. The insurance companies and TPAs have a long list of such diseases. If you suffer from any of these, during the cooling-off period, there is no convincing that will work, to claim that this was not something that you already had while taking the policy
- Ensure that all originals (prescriptions, bills, test reports etc.) are with you. These will have to be submitted in original to the insurers.
- Ensure that everything in the medical process gets recorded. For e.g. due to emergency conditions, if you have to be shifted to a bigger hospital, ensure that proper reasons are written in the discharge card of the first hospital
The entire thing reminded me of Michael Moore's Sicko.
Monday, September 06, 2010
I Like it
A Facebook application involving a Virtual Rakhi
I was in Delhi (on account of work) on the day of Rakhi. The good part was that most of my relatives are in and around Delhi and so there was a gathering planned. I do not have a real sister and my cousin sisters send me Rakhis every year. This year I got a chance to have them tie Rakhis, in person. Many of my relatives gathered at one location, though only for a few hours.
One of the things that was surprising for me was the amount of discussion that happened on the topic of Facebook. And the biggest participants of this discussion were not people of my age group or younger to me. But my uncles and aunts. Some were inquisitive about the whole concept / site, others wanted to know what was the utility.
People discussed each others' status updates and inquired about who all among other relatives / former-batchmates were registered on the site.They exchanged stories about how their children and acquaintances used it to stay in touch and gather information about some person.
No wonder Facebook has reached 500 million registrations. There is also a movie coming about the website, The Social Network. I like it's (intentional use!) tagline
"You don't get to 500 million friends without making a few enemies"
I have seen usage of Facebook in determination of people's fates lately. There is another interesting view about Facebook (via anshumans). And another.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Thanks for doing this
Dear Friend,
Thanks for taking up drinking, social as it may be. I know how hard it is to keep away from it for long. And with all the pressures from friends / colleagues and the tension in office, this was bound to happen.
I am sure you would have resisted it to the best of your capabilities. But now that you have started, why keep it to the realm of office gatherings / occasional meets with friends? You should plan in a way that every other night, you get an opportunity to have atleast some of it. I am sure you have enough acquaintances that will give you company, and would encourage this behaviour.
I was extremely happy to have heard of this new habit of yours from someone. I see that you have changed, and we all know that change is good. As they say, this is something not to be missed in life.
In case you care, I can't say if our friendship has strengthened now, but I will hope and try that the status quo remains.
Your friend.
Thanks for taking up drinking, social as it may be. I know how hard it is to keep away from it for long. And with all the pressures from friends / colleagues and the tension in office, this was bound to happen.
I am sure you would have resisted it to the best of your capabilities. But now that you have started, why keep it to the realm of office gatherings / occasional meets with friends? You should plan in a way that every other night, you get an opportunity to have atleast some of it. I am sure you have enough acquaintances that will give you company, and would encourage this behaviour.
I was extremely happy to have heard of this new habit of yours from someone. I see that you have changed, and we all know that change is good. As they say, this is something not to be missed in life.
In case you care, I can't say if our friendship has strengthened now, but I will hope and try that the status quo remains.
Your friend.
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Last evening
Me and one of my friends from office went to TGIF last evening. I was about to write about the happenings, when I realized he has already done so. And in a way that precisely conveys what I wanted to say. So, instead of writing about the same, I am just posting the link to his post.
Here it is: Friday encounters ...
Here it is: Friday encounters ...
Saturday, May 08, 2010
Quotes
In your day-to-day life, you come across various quotes / statements / phrases etc. that you want to remember / save somewhere. Previously, I used to save those in a text file on my computer, and when there were sufficient of them, I would post them on this blog. Sometimes, if by coincidence, I am writing a post on some topic, and am able to fit in the quote in the post, I would do that. Sometimes, I used to write entire posts around few phrases.
But now, with twitter, all it requires is one tweet. No more accumulating statements for future and no more pains of halfheartedly threading a story around phrases. (My tweets can be seen in the left sidebar of this page as well)
There is this interesting link about the statements that have been most highlighted by Kindle users. One of them is from The Last Lecture, by Randy Pausch. It goes like this
"When you’re screwing up and nobody says anything to you anymore, that means they’ve given up on you"
I have been one person, who keeps telling friends (just the close ones), what they should / shouldn't do. So, this resonated very well with me. And hence the post. Well, another one of those posts around one statement. May be the last one (?).
PS: Though I am still following the 3G auctions (though not as closely), I am very surprised at the kind of valuations the spectrum is seeking for itself. It has also led me, being somewhat less sure about my circle-wise analysis, and so have kept that on the back burner.
But now, with twitter, all it requires is one tweet. No more accumulating statements for future and no more pains of halfheartedly threading a story around phrases. (My tweets can be seen in the left sidebar of this page as well)
There is this interesting link about the statements that have been most highlighted by Kindle users. One of them is from The Last Lecture, by Randy Pausch. It goes like this
"When you’re screwing up and nobody says anything to you anymore, that means they’ve given up on you"
I have been one person, who keeps telling friends (just the close ones), what they should / shouldn't do. So, this resonated very well with me. And hence the post. Well, another one of those posts around one statement. May be the last one (?).
PS: Though I am still following the 3G auctions (though not as closely), I am very surprised at the kind of valuations the spectrum is seeking for itself. It has also led me, being somewhat less sure about my circle-wise analysis, and so have kept that on the back burner.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
3G Auctions - Rationalization as expected
As I had speculated in my previous post, the auctions are past their inflection point. We have seen more sane bidding on an overall basis, and mostly the serious players for each circle are in the fray.
My understanding of circle wise bidding, at end of day 9 is as below:
Please click on the image to see it in larger size.
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
My understanding of circle wise bidding, at end of day 9 is as below:
Please click on the image to see it in larger size.
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
Saturday, April 17, 2010
3G Auctions - Who is bidding for what?
A lot has changed in the last 2 days of bidding for 3G spectrum. Bidders have moved their hands deeper into their pockets and are using most of the ammunition they brought from their base camp. As per the auction rules, as rounds progress, the minimum bid points to be placed by each bidder (from its share) goes up. So, the greater bids are partially because of that. Also, the serious bidders in each circle will want to get rid of the not-so-sure ones.
I believe this day was the inflection point in the bidding process. From the next round of bidding (and going forward), one will see, players moving from circles they don't necessarily are adamant on, to other circles that are still relatively easily available.
Here is my guess, of which players are bidding for each circle at end of day 7.
Please click on the image to see it in larger size.
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
For a similar table on day 5, click here.
I believe this day was the inflection point in the bidding process. From the next round of bidding (and going forward), one will see, players moving from circles they don't necessarily are adamant on, to other circles that are still relatively easily available.
Here is my guess, of which players are bidding for each circle at end of day 7.
Please click on the image to see it in larger size.
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
For a similar table on day 5, click here.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
3G auctions - End of day 5
As many of you will know, 3G auctions are going on in India. It is a long drawn process and is expected to continue for 2-3 weeks. At end of each bidding day, the standing for the various circles are released as of the end of the day (after accounting for all rounds that took place on the day).
I went through the releases for the first few days and wanted to see if someone is speculating on who has bid for which circles. I failed to find any such analysis and so decided to do some of it on my own. I understand that this is mostly speculation, for even the bidders only have information of the consolidated bidding situation (and not that of other other individual bidders). Am posting my understanding of the bidding situation as of end of day 5. I will be keep a watch on how this shapes out. Various players will have different strategies, but it will be good to see, how close / far the final outcome is to what I have on my sheet.
Below is the circlewise, playerwise bidding situation as of end of day 5 (as per what I think).
Please click on the image to see it in larger size.
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
Above analysis is based on my interpretation of the standing of each player in different circles. I have also tried to think and incorporate what strategy / thought process each of them will have in various circles. I will tweak and modify these as the auction progresses, and the updates get announced. Intermittently, I might post it here as well.
I went through the releases for the first few days and wanted to see if someone is speculating on who has bid for which circles. I failed to find any such analysis and so decided to do some of it on my own. I understand that this is mostly speculation, for even the bidders only have information of the consolidated bidding situation (and not that of other other individual bidders). Am posting my understanding of the bidding situation as of end of day 5. I will be keep a watch on how this shapes out. Various players will have different strategies, but it will be good to see, how close / far the final outcome is to what I have on my sheet.
Below is the circlewise, playerwise bidding situation as of end of day 5 (as per what I think).
1 - Player is bidding for the circle
0 - Player is not bidding for the circle
Above analysis is based on my interpretation of the standing of each player in different circles. I have also tried to think and incorporate what strategy / thought process each of them will have in various circles. I will tweak and modify these as the auction progresses, and the updates get announced. Intermittently, I might post it here as well.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Who will be the first beneficiary / victim of the telecom consolidation?
Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are my personal views, and do not necessarily reflect the views of any entities, that I may be associated with. I have no financial investments in any of the companies mentioned. Use all information at your own risk.
On this day, when the Bharti-Zain deal has been finally sealed, I will like to propose a hypothesis related to the much-talked-about and inevitable consolidation in the Indian telecom industry. I am of the view, that, given the current scenario, among the bigger players, Idea Cellular will be the first one to cash out or merge with another player within the Indian market.
I believe, an Indian telecom player, needs to satisfy either of these 3 conditions, to sustain for medium-long term:
1. Be (comfortably) amongst the top 3 players, in terms of total subscribers
The latest (Feb '10) wireless subscriber figures available show the market share of the various players:
Bharti, Vodafone and Reliance satisfy this particular condition.
2. Be consistently amongst the top 3 players, in terms of absolute market share growth
Comparing Feb '10 figures to Mar '09 figures shows the following growth in market share for the various players
Tata (Docomo and other operations), Aircel and Unitech (Uninor) satisfy this condition.
3. Be amongst the top 3 players, in terms of percentage increase in market share
Comparing Feb '10 figures to Mar '09 figures shows the following percentage increase in market share for the various players (percentage increase = market share by end-Feb '10 / market share by end-Mar '09)
Stel and Unitech are new players and had not started operations in Mar '09 (hence, the 'infinity' in the table against their names). Leaving these, the players that satisfy this condition are Sistema, Aircel and Tata.
So, as per my view, if any of these conditions are not being satisfied, it makes little sense for the player to remain in the industry. This is especially true when there are 13 players (and more entering as we speak) in a sector that is globally seen to have 4-6 players, on an average.
So, the top contenders for any kind of consolidation are Idea Cellular & BSNL (among the bigger players) and Loop, HFCL & MTNL (among the smaller players). I have kept Stel out of the consideration, since it is a very new player and many of my conditions might not exactly be applicable to it.
Among these 5 firms, BSNL and MTNL are government-owned entities, and given by what we have seen in the Indian context, the maximum that will happen with these companies is - merger of MTNL & BSNL and / or IPO of BSNL.
So, Idea Cellular looks to be the top contender that will be involved in a major consolidation event. Loop and HFCL might get gobbled up by some player on the way.
If one looks at Idea's performance in various circles in the period under consideration (Mar '09 - Feb '10), it's subscriber base has grown by 44% in the 11 months, same as the overall market growth rate. I would have expected it to grow at something above market growth rate, given it is the fifth largest player and someone like Vodafone (having 55% more subscribers than Idea) has grown at 41% in the same period.
Even this growth for Idea has come partly because of entry into newer circles (it was operating in 15 out of the 22 circles in Mar '09 and has since entered the remaining 7 circles).
A look at the market shares and the growth / decline in various circles shows some challenges that the company is facing
1. The company has lost ground in most circles that used to be its major strongholds (e.g. Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, U.P. (W))
2. A lot of the major gains have been in circles where operations have recently been launched (e.g. Kolkata, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal). It is to be seen how much of this can be sustained going forward.
It has done well in some circles, such as Bihar, Gujarat, Mumbai, Rajasthan, U.P. (E). The growth, though, has mostly come on a much smaller base (except in Gujarat). This has enabled it to sustain it's overall market share in the country at 11.0% in the period under consideration. However, it is not clear how this share will be defended from hereon.
I understand that my analysis has entirely been based on the subscriber numbers and I have not looked at a lot of aspects that are internal. I have started from the assumption that consolidation is inevitable and the pricing pressures, number of subscribers gives a strong first-cut indication about the player conditions and potential future outlook.
I also want to propose, the different scenarios that might become the characteristic of the landmark consolidation event:
Scenario 1: One of the major foreign telecom companies acquiring significant shareholding from promoters (structure will become similar to Uninor). One possibility can also be Telekom Malaysia increasing it's stake.
Scenario 2: A major Indian industry group entering the telecom space through acquisition of a controlling stake
2.1 may be some one who gets a lot of money through selling an existing group company and wants to enter a different sector (e.g. recent diversification by the former Ranbaxy promoters)
OR
2.2 existing groups with diversification / ambitious growth plans (Mahindra? ITC?)
Scenario 3: A player like Tata, after increasing it's market share through organic route, wanting to catapult in the Top 3 through Idea's acquistion
Scenario 4: Idea merging with a smaller player (Aircel?) to retain / enhance it's falling market position.
I will keep an eye on this sector to see how things emerge. It will also be interesting to see, how much of the above was just my imagination, hard at work.
On this day, when the Bharti-Zain deal has been finally sealed, I will like to propose a hypothesis related to the much-talked-about and inevitable consolidation in the Indian telecom industry. I am of the view, that, given the current scenario, among the bigger players, Idea Cellular will be the first one to cash out or merge with another player within the Indian market.I believe, an Indian telecom player, needs to satisfy either of these 3 conditions, to sustain for medium-long term:
1. Be (comfortably) amongst the top 3 players, in terms of total subscribers
The latest (Feb '10) wireless subscriber figures available show the market share of the various players:
| Vodafone | 17.2% |
| Loop | 0.5% |
| Idea / Spice | 11.0% |
| Bharti | 22.1% |
| Reliance | 17.6% |
| HFCL | 0.1% |
| Sistema | 0.6% |
| Tata | 11.2% |
| Aircel / Dishnet | 6.2% |
| Stel | 0.1% |
| Unitech | 0.6% |
| MTNL | 0.9% |
| BSNL | 11.8% |
Bharti, Vodafone and Reliance satisfy this particular condition.
2. Be consistently amongst the top 3 players, in terms of absolute market share growth
Comparing Feb '10 figures to Mar '09 figures shows the following growth in market share for the various players
| Vodafone | -0.3% |
| Loop | -0.1% |
| Idea / Spice | 0.0% |
| Bharti | -1.9% |
| Reliance | -0.9% |
| HFCL | 0.0% |
| Sistema | 0.4% |
| Tata | 2.2% |
| Aircel / Dishnet | 1.5% |
| Stel | 0.1% |
| Unitech | 0.6% |
| MTNL | -0.3% |
| BSNL | -1.5% |
Tata (Docomo and other operations), Aircel and Unitech (Uninor) satisfy this condition.
3. Be amongst the top 3 players, in terms of percentage increase in market share
Comparing Feb '10 figures to Mar '09 figures shows the following percentage increase in market share for the various players (percentage increase = market share by end-Feb '10 / market share by end-Mar '09)
| Vodafone | 98% |
| Loop | 89% |
| Idea / Spice | 100% |
| Bharti | 92% |
| Reliance | 95% |
| HFCL | 59% |
| Sistema | 368% |
| Tata | 125% |
| Aircel / Dishnet | 131% |
| Stel | infinity |
| Unitech | infinity |
| MTNL | 77% |
| BSNL | 89% |
Stel and Unitech are new players and had not started operations in Mar '09 (hence, the 'infinity' in the table against their names). Leaving these, the players that satisfy this condition are Sistema, Aircel and Tata.
So, as per my view, if any of these conditions are not being satisfied, it makes little sense for the player to remain in the industry. This is especially true when there are 13 players (and more entering as we speak) in a sector that is globally seen to have 4-6 players, on an average.
So, the top contenders for any kind of consolidation are Idea Cellular & BSNL (among the bigger players) and Loop, HFCL & MTNL (among the smaller players). I have kept Stel out of the consideration, since it is a very new player and many of my conditions might not exactly be applicable to it.
Among these 5 firms, BSNL and MTNL are government-owned entities, and given by what we have seen in the Indian context, the maximum that will happen with these companies is - merger of MTNL & BSNL and / or IPO of BSNL.
So, Idea Cellular looks to be the top contender that will be involved in a major consolidation event. Loop and HFCL might get gobbled up by some player on the way.
If one looks at Idea's performance in various circles in the period under consideration (Mar '09 - Feb '10), it's subscriber base has grown by 44% in the 11 months, same as the overall market growth rate. I would have expected it to grow at something above market growth rate, given it is the fifth largest player and someone like Vodafone (having 55% more subscribers than Idea) has grown at 41% in the same period.
Even this growth for Idea has come partly because of entry into newer circles (it was operating in 15 out of the 22 circles in Mar '09 and has since entered the remaining 7 circles).
A look at the market shares and the growth / decline in various circles shows some challenges that the company is facing
| Market share (Feb '10) | Market share change from Mar '09 | |
| Andhra Pradesh | 13.9% | -2.7% |
| Assam | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Bihar | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Delhi | 9.2% | -1.8% |
| Gujarat | 17.4% | 1.2% |
| Himachal Pradesh | 5.2% | 1.0% |
| Haryana | 15.3% | -0.6% |
| J & K | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Karnataka | 7.1% | 0.1% |
| Kerala | 22.2% | -4.4% |
| Kolkata | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Madhya Pradesh | 23.2% | -1.2% |
| Maharashtra | 21.7% | -2.2% |
| Mumbai | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| North East | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Orissa | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Punjab | 16.4% | -0.3% |
| Rajasthan | 7.0% | 1.6% |
| Tamil Nadu | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| U.P.(E) | 8.6% | 1.2% |
| U.P.(W) | 19.3% | -1.7% |
| West Bengal | 2.5% | 2.5% |
1. The company has lost ground in most circles that used to be its major strongholds (e.g. Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, U.P. (W))
2. A lot of the major gains have been in circles where operations have recently been launched (e.g. Kolkata, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal). It is to be seen how much of this can be sustained going forward.
It has done well in some circles, such as Bihar, Gujarat, Mumbai, Rajasthan, U.P. (E). The growth, though, has mostly come on a much smaller base (except in Gujarat). This has enabled it to sustain it's overall market share in the country at 11.0% in the period under consideration. However, it is not clear how this share will be defended from hereon.
I understand that my analysis has entirely been based on the subscriber numbers and I have not looked at a lot of aspects that are internal. I have started from the assumption that consolidation is inevitable and the pricing pressures, number of subscribers gives a strong first-cut indication about the player conditions and potential future outlook.
I also want to propose, the different scenarios that might become the characteristic of the landmark consolidation event:
Scenario 1: One of the major foreign telecom companies acquiring significant shareholding from promoters (structure will become similar to Uninor). One possibility can also be Telekom Malaysia increasing it's stake.
Scenario 2: A major Indian industry group entering the telecom space through acquisition of a controlling stake
2.1 may be some one who gets a lot of money through selling an existing group company and wants to enter a different sector (e.g. recent diversification by the former Ranbaxy promoters)
OR
2.2 existing groups with diversification / ambitious growth plans (Mahindra? ITC?)
Scenario 3: A player like Tata, after increasing it's market share through organic route, wanting to catapult in the Top 3 through Idea's acquistion
Scenario 4: Idea merging with a smaller player (Aircel?) to retain / enhance it's falling market position.
I will keep an eye on this sector to see how things emerge. It will also be interesting to see, how much of the above was just my imagination, hard at work.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Warren Buffett's letter
Warren Buffett writes these famous annual letters to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Some interesting excerpts from his recent letter
"Our metrics for evaluating our managerial performance are displayed on the facing page. From the start, Charlie and I have believed in having a rational and unbending standard for measuring what we have – or havenot – accomplished. That keeps us from the temptation of seeing where the arrow of performance lands and then painting the bull’s eye around it.
I have been in dozens of board meetings in which acquisitions have been deliberated, often with the directors being instructed by high-priced investment bankers (are there any other kind?). Invariably, the bankers give the board a detailed assessment of the value of the company being purchased, with emphasis on why it is worth far more than its market price. In more than fifty years of board memberships, however, never have I heard the investment bankers (or management!) discuss the true value of what is being given. When a deal involved the issuance of the acquirer’s stock, they simply used market value to measure the cost. They did this even though they would have argued that the acquirer’s stock price was woefully inadequate – absolutely no indicator of its real value – had a takeover bid for the acquirer instead been the subject up for discussion.
When stock is the currency being contemplated in an acquisition and when directors are hearing from an advisor, it appears to me that there is only one way to get a rational and balanced discussion. Directors should hire a second advisor to make the case against the proposed acquisition, with its fee contingent on the deal not going through. Absent this drastic remedy, our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: 'Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.' "
"Our metrics for evaluating our managerial performance are displayed on the facing page. From the start, Charlie and I have believed in having a rational and unbending standard for measuring what we have – or havenot – accomplished. That keeps us from the temptation of seeing where the arrow of performance lands and then painting the bull’s eye around it.
I have been in dozens of board meetings in which acquisitions have been deliberated, often with the directors being instructed by high-priced investment bankers (are there any other kind?). Invariably, the bankers give the board a detailed assessment of the value of the company being purchased, with emphasis on why it is worth far more than its market price. In more than fifty years of board memberships, however, never have I heard the investment bankers (or management!) discuss the true value of what is being given. When a deal involved the issuance of the acquirer’s stock, they simply used market value to measure the cost. They did this even though they would have argued that the acquirer’s stock price was woefully inadequate – absolutely no indicator of its real value – had a takeover bid for the acquirer instead been the subject up for discussion.
When stock is the currency being contemplated in an acquisition and when directors are hearing from an advisor, it appears to me that there is only one way to get a rational and balanced discussion. Directors should hire a second advisor to make the case against the proposed acquisition, with its fee contingent on the deal not going through. Absent this drastic remedy, our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: 'Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.' "
Monday, March 22, 2010
M.B.A.
Interesting view from Matthew Stewart
"For companies, M.B.A. programs can be a way to outsource recruiting. Marvin Bower, McKinsey’s managing director from 1950 to 1967, was the first to understand this fact, and he built a legendary company around it. Through careful cultivation of the deans and judicious philanthropy, Bower secured a quasi-monopoly on Baker Scholars (the handful of top students at the Harvard Business School). Bower was not so foolish as to imagine that these scholars were of interest on account of the education they received. Rather, they were valuable because they were among the smartest, most ambitious, and best-connected individuals of their generation.Harvard had done him the favor of scouring the landscape, attracting and screening vast numbers of applicants, further testing those who matriculated, and then serving up the best and the brightest for Bower’s delectation. "
Addendum: I guess the chain continues, and to some level, various private equity firms and corporate houses (for senior management positions) have outsourced their recruiting to firms like McKinsey.
"For companies, M.B.A. programs can be a way to outsource recruiting. Marvin Bower, McKinsey’s managing director from 1950 to 1967, was the first to understand this fact, and he built a legendary company around it. Through careful cultivation of the deans and judicious philanthropy, Bower secured a quasi-monopoly on Baker Scholars (the handful of top students at the Harvard Business School). Bower was not so foolish as to imagine that these scholars were of interest on account of the education they received. Rather, they were valuable because they were among the smartest, most ambitious, and best-connected individuals of their generation.Harvard had done him the favor of scouring the landscape, attracting and screening vast numbers of applicants, further testing those who matriculated, and then serving up the best and the brightest for Bower’s delectation. "
Addendum: I guess the chain continues, and to some level, various private equity firms and corporate houses (for senior management positions) have outsourced their recruiting to firms like McKinsey.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
I don't know if, I should stay
One of the better email forwards I received ...
-------------------
The name is good, the brand is big
But, the work I do is that of a pig.
My Future, or the Brand; what is my way?
I don't know if, I should stay.
To work, they have set their own way
Nobody will care to hear what I say.
My will be NULL, they wont change their way
I don't know if, I should stay.
The project is in a critical stage,
To do good work, this is the age.
This dilemma is worsening day by day
I don't know if, I should stay.
The money is not good, the place isn’t as great
And the decline is at a very rapid rate.
Should I go for the opportunity, or wait for loyalty pay
I don't know if, I should stay!
The managers don't know what they talk,
The team doesn't know where they walk.
That's a bad situation, what say?
I don't know if I should stay.
I can go to any other place
But, what if, I get the same disgrace?
I can't keep switching day by day
I don't know if, I should stay.
The -ves are more, the +ves are less
Then why have this unnecessary mess?
No more will I walk their way,
It's all done, I won't stay.
-------------------
The name is good, the brand is big
But, the work I do is that of a pig.
My Future, or the Brand; what is my way?
I don't know if, I should stay.
To work, they have set their own way
Nobody will care to hear what I say.
My will be NULL, they wont change their way
I don't know if, I should stay.
The project is in a critical stage,
To do good work, this is the age.
This dilemma is worsening day by day
I don't know if, I should stay.
The money is not good, the place isn’t as great
And the decline is at a very rapid rate.
Should I go for the opportunity, or wait for loyalty pay
I don't know if, I should stay!
The managers don't know what they talk,
The team doesn't know where they walk.
That's a bad situation, what say?
I don't know if I should stay.
I can go to any other place
But, what if, I get the same disgrace?
I can't keep switching day by day
I don't know if, I should stay.
The -ves are more, the +ves are less
Then why have this unnecessary mess?
No more will I walk their way,
It's all done, I won't stay.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
To err by over-communicating
It is amazing how much we talk about communication, and how little we actually follow, what we preach.
I, along with a few others at work, had some things to be done. We required help from a lot of our colleagues and most of them were willing to help. It involved taking out time from their busy schedules and may be putting in some hours during the weekend.
The work got done and I conveniently forgot about these people who had helped us so much. There was no communication that was sent to them about how everything went and what was the result of the work that was put in by them.
When one of these people mailed me inquiring about the result, it was too embarrassing. They deserved to be part of the result - given that they were part of the process. I drafted a mail with the details w.r.t the results - and mailed it to everyone that was involved.
I understand that not everyone will be interested to the same extent in the results. But let's leave that to their discretion. They can always delete that mail as soon as they receive it. But let's give them that option. In my opinion, it is better to err on the side of over communication than not communicating enough.
I, along with a few others at work, had some things to be done. We required help from a lot of our colleagues and most of them were willing to help. It involved taking out time from their busy schedules and may be putting in some hours during the weekend.
The work got done and I conveniently forgot about these people who had helped us so much. There was no communication that was sent to them about how everything went and what was the result of the work that was put in by them.
When one of these people mailed me inquiring about the result, it was too embarrassing. They deserved to be part of the result - given that they were part of the process. I drafted a mail with the details w.r.t the results - and mailed it to everyone that was involved.
I understand that not everyone will be interested to the same extent in the results. But let's leave that to their discretion. They can always delete that mail as soon as they receive it. But let's give them that option. In my opinion, it is better to err on the side of over communication than not communicating enough.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Tomorrow is a new day
I keep saying to myself every once in a while ... that from tomorrow / from this instant, I would be a different person. I don't want to change everything that I am ... but only some of the things ... and mostly how I am internally. Even though most others might unanimously recommend a few things that I should change, they might not be agreeable to me. Sometimes, I am proud of a few of these things.
Anyways, the point of this post is that I have not been entirely successful in my above endeavour. You would have guessed that, given I have to revisit the thought so many time. I am hoping that writing it here might give the though another chance to get implemented in my life.
The motivations for such thoughts are pretty varied. Sometimes they come due things that happen with / at home, family, friends, work, colleagues etc. Sometimes, for no reason, you are faced with some existential questions in life and you start wondering where life is going.
I can list a lot of instances when such thoughts arise
... when someone you helped so much, starts pretending that you don't exist from the next day the work got over
... when a friend has time for everyone else, except you, and you give so much importance to this person
... when your time is not valued and everything has to happen as per the schedules of everyone else
... when things are not going exactly as plans in your work and you though its is not entirely your fault, you are being blamed for everything
... even after all this, you have no right to be angry with anyone for you would be fooling yourself if you are
... etc
The list can go on and on. But I guess, you get the point.
The idea is not to blabber all such things at this forum. The idea is to get your thoughts together and make a resolution to be different from tomorrow. It is almost 12 midnight and a new day is about to begin. From the time I wake up in the morning, I will be a different person, though you might not see much difference from the outside.
P.S. I know some of my acquaintances might mock at this post, if and when they read this. But I don't care (see I have started changing already :) ).
Anyways, the point of this post is that I have not been entirely successful in my above endeavour. You would have guessed that, given I have to revisit the thought so many time. I am hoping that writing it here might give the though another chance to get implemented in my life.
The motivations for such thoughts are pretty varied. Sometimes they come due things that happen with / at home, family, friends, work, colleagues etc. Sometimes, for no reason, you are faced with some existential questions in life and you start wondering where life is going.
I can list a lot of instances when such thoughts arise
... when someone you helped so much, starts pretending that you don't exist from the next day the work got over
... when a friend has time for everyone else, except you, and you give so much importance to this person
... when your time is not valued and everything has to happen as per the schedules of everyone else
... when things are not going exactly as plans in your work and you though its is not entirely your fault, you are being blamed for everything
... even after all this, you have no right to be angry with anyone for you would be fooling yourself if you are
... etc
The list can go on and on. But I guess, you get the point.
The idea is not to blabber all such things at this forum. The idea is to get your thoughts together and make a resolution to be different from tomorrow. It is almost 12 midnight and a new day is about to begin. From the time I wake up in the morning, I will be a different person, though you might not see much difference from the outside.
P.S. I know some of my acquaintances might mock at this post, if and when they read this. But I don't care (see I have started changing already :) ).
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Consultant ke haath main Laalten
I know you are in a bank
Which is higher in the preference rank
To kya hua agar main ban gaya Consultant
Ab bhi Fin hi karta hain mujhe asal main exultant
Tumhara bank though hain well performing
Abhi nahin maana jaata hain, among the top ranking
Mujh Consultant ko apne bank ka de do ek engagement
Bana doonga tumhare bank ko best co. for asset management
Tumhara kaam hain Excel aur Number
Kuch logo ko daal sakta hain in deep slumber
Par main un main se nahin hoon, you can be sure
Mujhe to acha lagta hain Valuation - Ratios ya DCF pure
Tum bhi PPT banati ho aadha time
And PPT se hum earn karte hain apna nickel aur dime
Aoo kissi din milke, synergy-strategy pe discussion ho jaaye
Thoda Excel tum mujhe sikhaon, thoda think-cell main kho jaayein
Apna saath sahi jamega
Portfolio diversified nahin thamega
Agar market down ho jaaye, to meri Consulting kaam aa jayegi
Aur agar Consulting na chali meri, to tumhare bank se funding raise ho jaayegi
Tumhara Consultant haath main Laalten liye shaam tak tumhara intezaar karega
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