Yes, it will rain; No, it won't

After living in Mumbai for about 15 years, one thing I learned was that the weather was far from being predictable, especially the monsoons. You carry your umbrellas the entire day only to bring it drier home. And the day you forget it or consciously avoid taking it (looking at the bright sunshine in the morning), you are up for a couple of showers.

But the Meteorological departments and other institutions dealing with climatology across the world are doing their best to prove me wrong. How much they have succeeded is debatable but at least the majority believes that this is something to be discussed about. The hurricanes, earthquakes, floods and other natural calamities that we hear frequently and the accompanying large damages of life and property keep adding fuel to the above talk.

I do not know what educational qualification is required to get an entry into the Indian Meteorological department; but rumours say that the money (from the entry level itself) is good. Some say that it is comparable to the highest salaries paid in India. One thing I am sure is that a lot of money is going into the department for the equipments required have got to cost a fortune as well as the satellites being flown require advanced technology and huge amounts of money.

But is this spending – in the name of the human quest to know and somehow control nature – justified. I have come across cases where either these people were not able to predict some major happening, climatically speaking or had gone terribly wrong in their predictions. This winter the temperature in Delhi reached 0.2°C when it usually goes to a minimum of 4°C during that time of the year. As usual, there were no indications before hand. There was also news that BBC had given a better prediction about the climate of Delhi than those given in India.

A more recent example – and one which has a lot more effect – was the case of predictions for this year’s monsoon. The predictions were that it would be below normal. This has ruffled some feathers as India – which is a more agriculturally oriented country – had been trying to revive the agricultural industry and such a happening would have spelt doom for the same. Also, the stock markets became a little jittery at the news.

However, the result is again similar. Not only has the monsoon reached the country before schedule, the meteorological department itself has now predicted a normal monsoon for the country. I know that predicting the climate is easier said than done, but what I ask for is some positive progress.