Monday, April 13, 2009

Will Indian economy emerge buoyant after the Global economic slowdown?

The question in title was answered as part of an application for a scholarship. The answer goes as below:
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The first answer that comes to my mind (and that might come to most people) is that India and its economy would definitely emerge buoyant after the Global economic slowdown. The shifting of power to the East along with expanding markets and fast paced globalization would help in this.

However, in my opinion, it is essential to understand what we mean by 'emerging buoyant'.

If we mean to say that India would be able to get back on track with the huge economic growth that it witnessed in the last decade or so, it probably would.

The reasons (both internal and external) which were responsible for the growth in the first place are here to stay. The external reasons such as the need for companies to find new markets, divide tasks in a way that it could be outsourced to someplace in the world where it could be done in the most efficient manner would be felt once again. These reasons are as existent now as they were before, but the risk averesness drift that is being seen currently has led to these getting subdued. However, as and when it becomes clear that Global economy is egressing out of the slowdown, things should catch-up (from where they were left, though with increased caution). There would be even a larger need to rely on globalization to meet the customer needs in the most efficient manner, for the competition would be from across the planet.

Closer scrutiny of the question leads to an implicit point being raised on which a view is being sought. It refers to whether the Indian economy find itself in a better place after the world comes out of the slowdown. This is a more long term question and would be dependent on certain specific tectonic shifts. Yet at the face of it, on a relative basis (as compared to most other economic powers), Indian economy might not be helped too much by the slowdown.

It would definitely be the case that the country's economy would have learnt its lessons and would have come up with measures to make itself more robust and sustainable (with lesser dependance on other economies). However, at the same time, the other countries would have also have derived essential learnings from the turmoil and would themselves have taken steps in the right direction.

So, when one talks about Indian economy's buoyancy, it would be the case on an absolute basis, but less so on a relative basis.

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